For the Next 3 weeks of class we will be applying the steps of the ACH method real word situation based on a notional conflict between the People's Republic of China Taiwan. As with any concept reading how to do it from the book is one thing but applying it to a real world event is another. Once you have completed the exercise you should have an excellent understanding as to how ACH actually works.

 

The Exercise is taught over three weeks and is broken down into manageable steps to help you apply the process. It is important to note that steps one through six of the exercise can be resubmitted for full credit but step seven where you report your findings in a six-page paper and eight where you list your future indicators cannot be resubmitted. For those of you haven't dealt with intelligence scenarios before, don't panic this exercise was specifically designed for first-timers. Remember everything we're discussing here comes directly from psychology of intelligence analysis, if you're unsure how to apply a particular step just be re-read the associated sections from either psychology if intelligence analysis or the PRC - Taiwan scenario.

 

The scenario packet contains all the exercise materials and is divided into four sections: First is the overview will provide historical background associate with the current situation between the PRC and Taiwan; this section discusses such things as national security policies, objectives political, differences and alliances, and previous military confrontations. Next part is ---the actors, every scenario whether real world or exercise, is driven by events from key actors which include among other political and military figures. As the scenario develops actions taken by one actor force other actors to respond thus driving an endless cycle of events. This section of the scenario identifies the actors and provides you with some background information as to the factors influencing their decision-making process.

 

Because the scenario involves military units a brief description of each unit has been included even if you have experience with the PRC or Taiwan military forces please be sure to read this section because definitions have a simplified for first-time students. Finally the scenario which includes predetermine events that begin 90 days prior to the Taiwanese elections and provides updates and 5 feet increments until 20 days prior to the election. Be sure to carefully read each input as it contains critical information that will influence your analysis if you just blow through each point without carefully considering significance you're going to have a hard time progressing through the exercise. Remember this is a basic introductory scenario designed to teach students ACH concepts of psychology of intelligence analysis, so just follow the directions, try not to read too much into it, and if you have any questions please don't hesitate to email me.