INTL401 Interactive Case Study
PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA - TAIWAN CRISIS
90 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
As the Taiwanese elections reach the 90-day mark, the race for the presidency is at a statistical dead-heat. The KMT's candidate (and current Mayor of Taipei) Ma Ying Jeon holds a 50.40% to 49.60% lead over the TSU's candidate Shu Chin-Chiang.
Coverage of the elections in the PRC's state-run media Xinhua has focused on two main themes.The first centers on veiled warnings to both candidates to avoid unnecessarily increasing tensions by injecting inflammatory issues (i.e. Taiwan independence) into the election. Their second theme has focused on condemning the TSU's Shu Chin-Chiang as a "reckless war mongerer" whose election would "irreparably damage the spirit surrounding positive negotiations." On the diplomatic front, Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting representatives from Ma Ying Jeon KMT are believed to be in the PRC conducting undisclosed negotiations.
85 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
After unleashing a new attack on Shu Chin-Chiang's alleged involvement in a two-year old corruption scandal, Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-52.05%) has increased his lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-47.95%) by 4.1%.
Although Shu Chin-Chiang was exonerated of any involvement in the cash-for-votes scandal, he realizes his vulnerability and has begun holding a series of high-level party meetings to develop a new strategy.
80 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.55%) continued attacks on Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.45%) has expanded his lead to 9.1%.
With less than three months to go before the election, Shu Chin-Chiang's campaign seems to be in a state of paralysis and unless a counterattack is launched soon, Shu Chin-Chiang's chances for winning the presidency will slip away.
75 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) has uncovered plans by the PRC to increase tensions between the two countries should Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) be elected. Although the Central News Agency refused to divulge their sources for the report, they insisted the accuracy and reliability of the information was "100% certain". Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.95%) lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.05%) has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
70 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
In the wake of the Central News Agency's report, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) has launched a blistering attack on the KMT for conspiring with the PRC to influence the outcome of the presidential elections. Citing Taiwan's Central News Agency report that KMT members were in the PRC approximately three weeks earlier, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) accused the KMT of "working with the enemy in order to maintain their political control."
In addition to vehement denials by Ma Ying Jeon, the PRC's Xinhua news agency ran an editorial claiming Chiang's accusations were "baseless lies designed to increase tensions between the PRC its province." In light of the alleged PRC plan, public opinion within Taiwan appears to be shifting towards the TSU. The latest poll numbers show Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-54.15%) lead over Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-45.85%) weakening slightly to 8.3%.
65 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Concerned the PRC may be attempting to interfere with "domestic affairs," Taiwan's current president Chen Shui-bian (Democratic Progressive Party) increases the alert status of Taiwan defense forces. Chen Shui-bian emphasizes this action is purely defensive and is designed to demonstrate Taiwan's ability to democratically elect a new president without any "external influence or intervention."
During a campaign rally in Taipei, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-48.34%) continues to blast Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-51.66%) "collusion with the enemy" and claims the Taiwanese people (as evidenced by his increasing poll numbers) will not stand idly by as the PRC "meddles" in Taiwan’s affairs. In the PRC, the Xinhua news agency condemned Shu Chin-Chiang's actions as "reckless, hostile, and suicidal" and again claimed the Taiwanese people will not to support a proven "liar and manipulator." In response to Chen Shui-bian's decision to increase the readiness level of Taiwan forces, the Chief of the PLA's General Staff, General Liang Guanglie announce a series of unrelated naval exercises would be conducted "near Taiwan."
60 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
As tensions between Taiwan and PRC increase, Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-51.78%) has taken his first lead (3.56%) over Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-48.22%). During a massive campaign rally in Tungkang, Shu Chin-Chiang claims over the past 55 years, Taiwan and PRC have developed "unique, defining characteristics" causing each "entity" to take "divergent paths."
Taiwan intelligence is reporting a dramatic increase in military communications between PLA, PLAAF, and PLAN units along the PRC's eastern coast. The nature of the communications is unknown. The Xinhua news began airing commentaries from CCP officials condemning the "renegade province" for engaging in "reckless behavior."
SITUATION MAP
55 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Shu Chin-Chiang's (TSU-53.27%) lead over Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-46.73%) continues to widen (6.54%) as Shu Chin-Chiang makes veiled references of independence. To date, Shu Chin-Chiang has not directly used the word "independence," however it has become clear to all observers that Shu Chin-Chiang is headed in that direction.
Taiwan’s current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a public warning to Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) to avoid antagonizing the PRC by making "inflammatory comments." Said Chen Shui-bian "I will not stand by and let one
According to the Pacific Command, flight activity at Shantou, Fuzhou, and Luqiao air force bases has increased significantly within the past 48 hours. Reporting from the National Security Agency indicates a spike in communications activity at Zhangzhou and Whenzhou Naval bases. The People's Daily, a newspaper of the CCP ran a series of articles criticizing the elections and the US’ silence on the issue, suggesting the elections may be part of a larger US plan to "bring war on the Chinese people."
50 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Shu Chin-Chiang's (TSU-55.19%) continued references to "unique, defining characteristics" and "divergent paths" has expanded his lead (10.36%) over Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-44.83%) and appears to be headed towards victory. The People's Liberation Army Daily (the PLA's official newspaper) proclaimed "The armed forces of the PRC stand ready to crush anyone seeking to undermine the CCP's sovereign authority."
In a meeting with a reporter from the Washington Times, two unnamed Pentagon sources confirmed the PRC is in the process of conducting a limited mobilization of air, land, and sea forces opposite Taiwan. Seeking to defuse a potential confrontation, Taiwan's current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) agreed to send representatives to the mainland to discuss the "current situation."
45 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
During a formal press conference, Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-41.37%) criticized Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.63%) for "unnecessarily increasing tensions [that could] bring grave consequences to the entire region." In response, Shu Chin-Chiang stated "I am simply following the will of the people. "Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a statement that negotiations with the PRC were "progressing" and that Taiwan was contemplating lowering their military alert status as a sign of "goodwill." Taiwan's intelligence service confirmed the PLA has ordered the 1st, 2nd, and 4th Infantry divisions to begin mobilizing.
Satellite imagery also revealed two PLAN anti-ship submarines from Ningbo have departed port and their exact location is unknown. The Xinhua news agency is airing footage of PLAAF fighters and bombers conducting exercises against a "renegade force seeking to destabilize the PRC." The footage included the launching of cruise missiles against surface targets and air-to-air combat. It is unclear when the footage was originally taken.
40 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-41.88%) continued to verbally attack Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.12%) for unnecessarily increasing tensions with the PRC. Ma appears to be shifting his strategy towards attacking Shu in hopes the Taiwanese people will place "common sense" above "nationalism."
According to all-source intelligence from the US’ Strategic Command, the 99th and 98th missile regiments successfully fired two CSS-6 short range missiles into a test range located in central China. The a spokesman for the PLA's Second Artillery Force claimed the launches were part of a planned test to ensure missile reliability. The National Security Agency reported the PLAN has ordered submarines from Canton, Zhangzhou, and Whenzhou to prepare for "operations." The PLAN also ordered the naval squadron at Canton to prepare for "extended" operations.
This exercise uses information taken from the PRC - Taiwan Case Study to include the Historical Overview, Primary Actors, Military Units, and Message Traffic from day 90 to day 40.
Launch Assignment
35 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
With only 35 days remaining until the elections, Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-41.45%) attacks against Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.55%) have failed to produce a significant change within the polls as he trails by 17.1%.
Although not officially advocating independence, Shu continues to insist he is only following the will of the Taiwanese people. The People's Liberation Army Daily announced a series of live fire missile tests would be conducted "off the Chinese coast within the very near future." The PLA's 25th and 79th Airborne divisions have been placed on alert while unconfirmed reporting suggests PLA Amphibious squadrons in Zhangzhou and Whenzhou have been ordered to participate in a large scale exercise scheduled to begin within the next 10 days. In a closed door meeting with top communist officials, the Premier of the CPC Hu Jintao reportedly told the Chief of the PLA's General Staff, General Liang Guanglie to review "all applicable plans."
30 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Ma Ying Jeon's (KMT-40.04%) inability to counter Shu Chin-Chiang’s (TSU-59.60%) attacks has made his defeat all but certain, trailing by 19.56 percentage points. Open source reporting suggests the PRC's Hu Jintao appealed directly to the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to intervene in the crisis. Given the PRC’s checkered history with the UN, this appears to be a sincere attempt by Hu to avoid a military conflict. USAF Electronic Intelligence reporting indicates the 96th Missile Regiment near Nanping is calibrating their equipment in preparation for a CSS-6 missile launch. Although the exact impact area(s) for the possible missile launch remain unidentified, analysts assess it will be "very close" to Taiwan.
The PLA has issued tentative mobilization orders to several air and ground units in the PRC. The orders are believed to be in preparation for deployment into the Nanjing Military District, which is located directly across from Taiwan.
25 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
As tensions between the PRC and Taiwan continue to rise, sources within the White House are expressing dismay over events in Taiwan.During a televised press conference, President Obama cautioned Shu Chin-Chiang to accept the "status quo" by not (unnecessarily) increasing tensions in a politically charged environment. US representatives from the American Institute in Taiwan have also conveyed "serious concern" over the rhetoric being used by Shu Chin-Chiang. US representatives warned both presidential candidates that under the current circumstances, the US could not guarantee political, or let alone military support, should a confrontation with the PRC occur. Said one high ranking US official "should Shu claim independence, there is no way the US President will send US forces near Taiwan." Amid rising tensions, the United Nations Security Council agreed to immediately address the brewing crisis.
20 DAYS PRIOR TO THE ELECTION
Having essentially been warned by the international community, Shu Chin-Chiang’s next step remains uncertain. With the polls showing Shu holding a 13.84% lead over Ma Ying Jeon, the PRC continues to mobilize their military forces. Imagery of Zhangzhou and Whenzhou naval ports revealed several amphibious assault squadrons were in the early stages of uploading supplies. The US Pacific Command reports Fighter Regiment patrols within the Taiwan Straits have increased by 50%. Xinhua has announced the PRC will be conducting a series of missile tests within the Taiwan Strait. Xinhua’s reports have been verified by USAF reconnaissance flights, which confirmed missile and radar calibrations were being conducted by the 96th Missile Regiment. PLA B-6 bombers from Luqiao airfield were also imaged uploading air-to-surface munitions.
End of Scenario
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Select the Actors and Military Units for important information about them.
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CHARACTER BIOGRAPHIES
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Founded in 1986, the DPP was formed as a KMT opposition party and succeed in winning Taiwan’s presidency in 2000.
Since taking office, Chen Shui-bian (right) has modified the party’s position favoring independence. Although not openly calling for independence, the DPP concedes Taiwan has a separate identity from the mainland and both nations should work towards establishing "normal" relations.Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)
Founded in 2001, the TSU is a staunch advocate of independence. The TSU firmly believes Taiwan is already an
independent nation and over the last 50 years, has developed their own sense of identity and nationhood. The TSU supports the drafting of a new constitution and the establishing of 'state-to-state' relations with the PRC. The TSU candidate for President is the party's Chairman, Shu Chin-Chiang.Kuomintang (KMT)
Originally founded by Sun Yat-sen in 1912, the KMT is Taiwan's oldest political party. After losing the battle for
mainland China in 1949, the KMT established an authoritarian state until they finally suspended martial law in 1991. The KMT has softened their stance towards the PRC and support economic links to the mainland. The KMT also supports the 1992 Consensus calling for One China (but with different interpretations) and prefers to maintain the status quo between the two nations. The KMT candidate for President is the Mayor of Taipei, Ma Ying Jeon (right).People's Liberation Army (PLA).
As the military arm of the Communist Party of China, the PLA is responsible for maintaining the PRC's domestic and international
security. The PLA consists of the Army, Navy (PLAN), and Air Force (PLAAF). Unlike the US, the PLA does not report to a civilian, but to a set of Central Military Commissions. The Chief of the PLA's General Staff is General Liang Guanglie.Premier, Communist Part of China (CPC)
Within the PRC, the Premier is the highest ranking communist official. The Premier of the CPC is Hu Jintao. -
MILITARY UNITS
Infantry Division
An Infantry Division is the primary ground unit used in military operations. Consisting of approximately 15,000 men, Infantry divisions are capable of performing independent offensive and defensive operations but require a considerable amount of time to reposition.
Airborne Division
Airborne divisions perform the same functions as Infantry Divisions; however, they are capable of parachuting behind enemy lines in order to seize important facilities or areas at the start of hostilities. Airborne divisions number approximately 10,000 men and lack the firepower associated with Infantry Divisions.
Missile Regiment
A Missile Regiment consists of short range, Surface-to-Surface Missiles (SSMs) designed to destroy fixed targets (such as cities, military installations, industrial facilities, and transportation links). The PRC has more than 700 SSMs deployed opposite Taiwan. The devastation inflicted by the PRC's missile attacks would not only cause considerable damage and mass hysteria, but they would also send economic tremors throughout the world.
Fighter Regiment
A Fighter Regiment consists of 45 aircraft capable of performing air-to-air and air-to-ground missions. The primary objective of a Fighter Regiment is to gain air superiority (so land operations can begin) and to attack targets of opportunity before they can attack friendly forces.
Bomber Regiments
Bomber Regiments consist of 18 "heavy bombers" carrying bombs or cruise missiles capable of delivering conventional, chemical, or nuclear payloads. Bomber Regiments are typically used to attack military installations, enemy troop concentrations, and industrial targets.
Naval Squadron
A Naval Attack Squadron consists of 15 ships and are designed to perform shore attack, anti-ship, and air defense missions. Although Naval Attack squadrons are equipped with helicopters, they do not include aircraft carriers. Should the PRC decide to blockade or attack Taiwan, the PLAN's Naval Attack Squadrons would play a critical role.
Submarine Squadrons
Submarine Squadrons consist of four submarines capable of conducting anti-ship operations. Submarines would play a critical role by attacking enemy surface ships and enforcing any blockade. Given the PLAN's large number of submarines, they could easily encircle Taiwan and destroy any unescorted transports headed for Taiwan.
Amphibious Assault Squadron
An Amphibious Assault Squadron consists of 50 landing craft capable of transporting Infantry Divisions across the Taiwan Straits. Prior to an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, the PLA would have to move their Infantry Divisions into a staging area where they could board amphibious transports.