Since intelligence scenarios are based on future events, opinions will vary as to how real or a scenario is. In the event you disagree with an aspect of the scenario, please do your best to "play along" and focus on applying the ACH steps as events unfold. For example, some students may have experience analyzing the PRC’s “real world" military capabilities. As events unfold, the Chinese military forces may demonstrate a capability or employ a tactic beyond what some folks would consider to be “realistic.” In case you encounter this, please try to “set aside” your real-world knowledge and continue to work within the confines of the scenario. Remember, before 9-11, few (if any) analysts would’ve considered using commercial airliners as a guided (human) missile.

The role of the intel analyst is to work with limited information, and fill in the gps to reach as complete a picture as possible. Scenarios (by design) contain information gaps that force players to assess the "unknown" factors. In a typical intelligence exercise, players would have a means to submit intelligence requirements and Requests For Information (RFIs) in order to learn more about the unfolding events. The biggest challenge analysts face is trying to identify intentions based on limited information - a difficult task even under the best of circumstances.

In order to successfully complete this exercise, students will have to understand and continually refer to the PIA. Students may have to read some steps several times and refer to the exercise instructions which will be released over the duration of the course. When it comes to completing the exercise, be patient, thoroughly read this booklet and PIA, and follow examples contained in the instructions.

Because this is an exercise in analysis, it is important for students to understand there is no "right" or "wrong" answer as they are attempting to identify the most likely future course of action based on a range of probabilities. As long as students make a concerted effort to complete each of the eight steps associated with ACH method, support their analysis with examples from the scenario, they will receive full credit for the assignment.

For this class, we’ll be using a scenario based on the events occurring between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China, also known as Taiwan. To familiarize students with the situation surrounding the PRC -and Taiwan, a brief historical summary has been included. Please be sure you take the time to carefully review this information as you cannot effectively assess an event if you don’t take the time to understand how the current situation came to be.

Following the historical summary, information updates (known as “message traffic” within the community) will be provided. Unlike the real world when thousands of messages and updates from multiple sources would be received on a daily basis, the traffic for this scenario will be released in five-day increments in paragraph form. In the real world, analyst would have to sift through the information in order to determine what information is relevant to the issues at hand.